Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2025 H2

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 08 October 2025

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.footnote [1]

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2025 H2 survey, which was conducted between 28 July and 27 August 2025.

59 firms participated in the 2025 H2 survey, representing a 67% response rate.

Key results from 2025 H2 survey

  • Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a higher level of confidence than in 2025 H1.
  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system over the short term is at a similar level compared to the previous survey, but higher over the medium term.
  • Cyberattack and geopolitical risk remain the two most frequently cited sources of risks among participants and are also considered the most challenging risks to manage, as well as the most likely risks to materialise.
  • While fewer participants cited a UK economic downturn as a source of risk than in the 2025 H1 survey, it remains one of the most frequently cited risks, with over half of respondents highlighting it.
  • The proportion of respondents citing inflation risk has continued its downward trend since its 2022 H2 peak.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a higher level of confidence than in 2025 H1.

  • 95% of respondents judge themselves as being very confident (37%, +3 percentage points since the 2025 H1 survey), or fairly confident (58%, +5 percentage points).
  • 5% of respondents judge themselves as being not very confident (-8 percentage points).
  • No respondents report being completely confident (unchanged since the 2025 H1 survey).

Chart 1: Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (a)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' confidence in the stability of the UK's financial system over the next three years. The series shown is between 2008-25. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line indicating high confidence with a net percentage balance of 16.1%. Series high: 22.4% in 2021 H2. Series low: -9% in 2009 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years. The net percentage balance is calculated by weighting responses as follows: complete confidence (1), very confident (0.5), fairly confident (0), not very confident (-0.5) and no confidence (-1). Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.footnote [2]

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event over the short term is at a similar level compared to the previous survey, but higher over the medium term.

Over the short term (0–12 months):

  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (-2 percentage points since the 2025 H1 survey).
  • 19% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (-3 percentage points).
  • 51% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (+9 percentage points).
  • 31% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (29%, -2 percentage points) or very low (2%, -2 percentage points).

Chart 2: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 0-12 months. The series shown is between 2008-25. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the short term is at a similar level compared to the 2025 H1 survey, with a net percentage balance of -6.8% in this survey. Series high: 41.1% in 2019 H2. Series low: -36.1% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term. And also, how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, short term was defined as 0–12 months.
  • (b) Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance. The net percentage balance in this chart is calculated by weighting responses as follows: very high (1), high (0.5), medium (0), low (-0.5) and very low (-1).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

  • 42% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (+11 percentage points).
  • 3% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (-2 percentage points).
  • 47% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (-5 percentage points).
  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very low (unchanged since the 2025 H1 survey), and 7% consider the likelihood to be low (-4 percentage points).

Chart 3: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the medium term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 1-3 years. The series shown is between 2008-25. The columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the medium term has increased over the past six months, with a net percentage balance of 21.2%. Series high: 43.8% in 2022 H2. Series low: -7.6% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term, and how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, medium term was defined as 1–3 years.
  • (b) See footnote (b) of Chart 2.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 26 categories shown in Table A2.footnote [3] Below is a list of the risks that were most frequently cited by the respondents in the 2025 H2 survey as one of their top five risks (Chart 4):

1. Cyberattack (cited by 86% of respondents, +14 percentage points since the 2025 H1 survey).

2. Geopolitical risk (85%, -3 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (56%, -6 percentage points).

4. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (46%, +13 percentage points).

5=. Operational risk (36%, +3 percentage points).

5=. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (36%, +16 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as their ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (36%, -6 percentage points).

2. Cyberattack (20%, +2 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (8%, -1 percentage point).

4. Sovereign risk (7%, +5 percentage points).

5=. Funding risk (5%, +1 percentage point).

5=. Operational risk (5%, -6 percentage points).

5=. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (5%, +1 percentage point).

Cyberattack and geopolitical risk remain the two most frequently cited sources of risks that would have the greatest impact on UK the financial system should they materialise, with the proportion of participants citing cyberattack increasing to its highest level recorded in the survey.

There has been a sharp rise in the number of respondents citing risk of financial market disruption/dislocation and risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn, while the share citing inflation risks has fallen further.

  • The three most frequently cited risks – cyberattack (86%), geopolitical risk (85%), and risks associated with a UK economic downturn (56%) – remain the most frequently cited since the 2024 H1 survey.
  • The next most cited risks continued to be those associated with financial market disruption/dislocation (46%), though no respondents cite it as their ‘number one’ risk. Financial market disruption/dislocation has continually grown since the 2024 H1 survey (46%, +14 percentage points since the 2024 H1 survey), with respondents noting the risk of a reduction in market liquidity and dislocation in securities markets.
  • The share of participants citing risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn rose in the latest survey (36%, +16 percentage points).
  • Beyond the top five risks, there was a significant reduction in the share of respondents citing inflation risk (7%, -10 percentage points since the 2025 H1 survey).

Chart 4: Perceived key sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk between 2008-25. Cyberattack was cited by at 86% of respondents in 2025 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Chart 5: ‘Number one’ sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk as the most impactful if it were to materialise, between 2008-25. The top two risks considered most impactful in 2025 H2 are geopolitical risk (cited by 36% of respondents) and cyberattack (20%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk as their number one key risk, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five ‘number one’ sources of risk that have been cited in the most recent survey; see the data appendix for more detail.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1. Cyberattack (75% of respondents, +13 percentage points since the 2025 H1 survey).

2. Geopolitical risk (68%, +1 percentage point).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (27%, -7 percentage points).

4. Operational risk (20%, -5 percentage points).

5=. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (14%, +3 percentage points).

5=. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (14%, +3 percentage points).

Chart 6: Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents citing each risk as the most challenging to manage for their firms, between 2008-25. Cyberattack (mentioned by 75% of respondents) was considered the most challenging to manage, followed closely by Geopolitical risk (68%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories only; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Cyberattack and geopolitical risk are still considered to be most challenging risks to manage.

  • Cyberattack (75%) and geopolitical risk (68%) are still considered the most challenging to manage by respondents, with the proportion of those citing cyberattack increasing to its highest level recorded in the survey.
  • Although there has been a slight decrease in the proportion of participants citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn and operational risk since the 2025 H1 survey, they continue to be considered one of the most challenging to manage.
  • The proportion of respondents citing inflation risk has decreased, by 8 percentage points.
  • Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation and risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn have both increased by 3 percentage points.

Key risks most likely to materialise

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.footnote [4]

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (71% of respondents, -9 percentage points since the 2025 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (56%, +12 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (41%, -8 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (25%, +16 percentage points).

Chart 7: Risks most likely to materialise – as mentioned by respondents (a) (b) (c)

This is a treemap chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey citing each risk as most probable to materialise. Geopolitical risk (cited by 71% of respondents), cyberattack (56%), and risks associated with a UK economic downturn (41%) are considered most likely to occur by respondents in this survey.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
  • (c) The risks presented in this chart include only those cited as most likely to materialise by at least 5% of respondents. Please refer to Table A4 in the data appendix for details.
  • Geopolitical risk remains the most likely risk to materialise according to respondents.
  • There has been an increase in respondents citing cyberattack since the 2025 H1 survey, and it has returned to being the second most likely risk to materialise.
  • The share of respondents citing risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn has risen sharply, by 16 percentage points.
  • Outside of the top four risks above, inflation risk has continued to decrease and is now at its lowest level recorded in the survey.

Data appendix

  • Aggregate risks to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c)

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)

    Very high

    1

    14

    6

    2

    0

    0

    2

    0

    High

    30

    48

    46

    36

    24

    17

    22

    19

    Medium

    46

    35

    33

    32

    50

    46

    42

    51

    Low

    21

    3

    14

    27

    23

    35

    31

    29

    Very low

    1

    0

    1

    4

    3

    2

    4

    2

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)

    Very high

    9

    17

    11

    7

    8

    0

    5

    3

    High

    37

    55

    56

    50

    38

    43

    31

    42

    Medium

    53

    26

    28

    34

    39

    43

    53

    47

    Low

    1

    2

    6

    9

    15

    13

    11

    7

    Very low

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (e)

    Increased

    39

    83

    51

    23

    35

    26

    36

    2

    Unchanged

    51

    15

    35

    59

    52

    57

    56

    59

    Decreased

    10

    2

    14

    18

    14

    17

    7

    39

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (e)

    Increased

    33

    69

    42

    27

    32

    24

    49

    46

    Unchanged

    61

    29

    51

    70

    65

    67

    47

    54

    Decreased

    6

    2

    7

    4

    3

    9

    4

    0

    Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (f)

    Complete confidence

    1

    0

    1

    2

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Very confident

    44

    42

    24

    29

    29

    38

    35

    37

    Fairly confident

    51

    55

    69

    63

    65

    56

    53

    58

    Not very confident

    3

    3

    6

    7

    6

    4

    13

    5

    No confidence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Change in confidence over the past six months (g)

    Increased

    9

    0

    7

    7

    5

    16

    9

    5

    Unchanged

    81

    71

    50

    80

    80

    73

    64

    83

    Decreased

    10

    29

    43

    13

    15

    11

    27

    12

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.
    • (g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.
  • Sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c) (d)

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    Cyberattack

    79

    74

    75

    80

    70

    80

    73

    86

    Geopolitical risk

    63

    72

    79

    66

    85

    93

    87

    85

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    14

    20

    32

    52

    44

    45

    62

    56

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    24

    17

    13

    21

    14

    22

    33

    46

    Operational risk

    29

    20

    21

    20

    12

    22

    33

    36

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    6

    20

    22

    16

    14

    33

    20

    36

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    7

    14

    15

    16

    20

    Climate risk

    24

    23

    39

    39

    36

    29

    15

    19

    Household/corporate credit risk

    9

    8

    10

    7

    20

    24

    20

    14

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    9

    6

    17

    11

    15

    13

    16

    14

    Sovereign risk

    1

    2

    4

    2

    3

    7

    9

    14

    Funding risk

    3

    2

    7

    9

    8

    4

    13

    10

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    0

    1

    7

    12

    15

    9

    8

    Other

    19

    23

    19

    14

    11

    22

    5

    8

    Inflation risk

    63

    72

    53

    57

    41

    24

    16

    7

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    1

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    7

    7

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    4

    6

    6

    14

    17

    5

    5

    5

    Risk of property price falls

    13

    3

    10

    11

    11

    7

    2

    3

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    4

    5

    7

    9

    6

    2

    7

    3

    UK political risk

    26

    34

    28

    16

    21

    7

    5

    3

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    3

    5

    1

    0

    3

    4

    4

    2

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    4

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    4

    2

    Pandemic risk

    51

    31

    8

    5

    3

    0

    2

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    3

    0

    3

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    11

    17

    8

    5

    3

    2

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)

    Geopolitical risk

    13

    17

    28

    23

    41

    42

    42

    36

    Cyberattack

    34

    17

    10

    27

    21

    31

    18

    20

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    6

    8

    14

    16

    12

    5

    9

    8

    Sovereign risk

    0

    0

    1

    2

    0

    0

    2

    7

    Funding risk

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    4

    5

    Operational risk

    0

    0

    1

    0

    5

    5

    11

    5

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    0

    3

    4

    0

    2

    5

    4

    5

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    2

    2

    0

    0

    3

    Climate risk

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Inflation risk

    23

    38

    25

    14

    5

    4

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    1

    0

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    1

    3

    1

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    1

    3

    1

    4

    0

    0

    2

    2

    UK political risk

    1

    2

    1

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    Household/corporate credit risk

    0

    2

    3

    0

    5

    2

    0

    0

    Other

    3

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    11

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    1

    3

    0

    5

    2

    2

    4

    0

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    0

    1

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    0

    0

    3

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    3

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.
    • (e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
    • (f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b) (c)

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    Cyberattack

    65

    56

    50

    70

    59

    71

    62

    75

    Geopolitical risk

    40

    48

    49

    46

    70

    71

    67

    68

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    4

    13

    24

    29

    18

    16

    35

    27

    Operational risk

    18

    11

    11

    11

    8

    16

    25

    20

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    10

    11

    3

    5

    3

    11

    11

    14

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    4

    6

    11

    11

    10

    22

    11

    14

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    6

    5

    11

    4

    7

    7

    13

    10

    Climate risk

    15

    13

    15

    20

    16

    15

    5

    8

    Household/corporate credit risk

    4

    5

    7

    2

    16

    7

    4

    8

    Sovereign risk

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    4

    8

    Other

    13

    6

    13

    5

    7

    11

    2

    7

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    0

    1

    7

    10

    9

    4

    7

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    2

    10

    5

    9

    7

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    4

    5

    0

    9

    8

    4

    5

    5

    Funding risk

    1

    2

    6

    9

    2

    2

    7

    3

    Inflation risk

    46

    61

    40

    41

    16

    9

    11

    3

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    0

    3

    UK political risk

    10

    14

    11

    7

    7

    4

    4

    3

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    1

    3

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Pandemic risk

    29

    9

    4

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    3

    0

    6

    2

    8

    2

    2

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    4

    11

    3

    4

    2

    2

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    4

    3

    3

    4

    3

    0

    4

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    70

    65

    72

    56

    66

    55

    55

    59

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks, they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  • Risks most probable to materialise (a) (b) (c)

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    Geopolitical risk

    41

    67

    75

    80

    71

    Cyberattack

    46

    40

    60

    44

    56

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    39

    37

    29

    49

    41

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    7

    10

    22

    9

    25

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    11

    8

    15

    16

    20

    Operational risk

    14

    10

    13

    18

    19

    Household/corporate credit risk

    4

    12

    15

    13

    8

    Risk around regulation/taxes

    4

    10

    5

    11

    8

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    4

    7

    4

    5

    5

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    0

    2

    4

    5

    Other

    4

    3

    9

    2

    5

    Climate risk

    16

    15

    15

    4

    5

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    5

    12

    5

    2

    5

    Inflation risk

    52

    20

    15

    13

    3

    Sovereign risk

    2

    2

    2

    2

    3

    UK political risk

    9

    17

    4

    4

    3

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    7

    3

    0

    2

    3

    Funding risk

    9

    3

    0

    4

    2

    Risk of property price falls

    9

    5

    4

    2

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    0

    7

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    4

    2

    2

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Pandemic risk

    4

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    4

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    56

    66

    55

    55

    59

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  1. The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

  2. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

  3. These summary categories are adjusted over time in order to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

  4. This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.