We use necessary cookies to make our site work (for example, to manage your session). We’d also like to use some non-essential cookies (including third-party cookies) to help us improve the site. By clicking ‘Accept recommended settings’ on this banner, you accept our use of optional cookies.
Necessary cookies
Analytics cookies
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Necessary cookies
Necessary cookies enable core functionality on our website such as security, network management, and accessibility. You may disable these by changing your browser settings, but this may affect how the website functions.
Analytics cookies
We use analytics cookies so we can keep track of the number of visitors to various parts of the site and understand how our website is used. For more information on how these cookies work please see our Cookie policy.
Peering into the present: the Bank’s approach to GDP nowcasting
Quarterly Bulletin 2017 Q2 article
Published on
16 June 2017
By Nikoleta Anesti, Simon Hayes, Andre Moreira, James Tasker
The Bank’s GDP nowcast represents the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) estimate of economic growth in the current quarter, before official data become available. The nowcast is informed by statistical models, but is ultimately judgemental, reflecting all available information.
Users of nowcasts must be aware of the degree of accuracy that can be expected, as this varies across models and time. Models based on survey information tend to be more accurate early in the quarter, whereas high‑frequency output data published by the ONS become more useful later.
The MPC’s Inflation Report nowcasts have been relatively accurate, with a root mean squared error of 0.3 percentage points over the past ten years - lower than a mechanical use of the models could have attained. GDP growth estimates have fallen within 0.1 percentage points of the MPC’s expectation about half the time, although much larger surprises have occasionally occurred.