The August DMP survey was conducted between 8 and 22 August and received 2,126 responses.
Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% in the three months to August. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.
In the three months to August, firms reported that their year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7%, unchanged from the three months to July. This implies that firms expect no change in own-price inflation over the next year.
Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% in the three months to August, although expectations rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4% in the single month data. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations rose for the first time since January, by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in the three months to August.
Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.6% in the three months to August, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to July. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged in August at 3.6% on a three-month moving-average basis. The single month figure fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. This implies that firms expected their wage growth to decline by 1 percentage point over the next 12 months, based on these three-month averages.
Realised annual employment growth was -0.5% in the three months to August, 0.4 percentage points lower than in the three months to July. Expectations for employment growth over the next year have also weakened, falling by 0.3 percentage points to 0.2% in the three months to August.
In August, the DMP survey asked firms about the margins of adjustment to the changes in employer National insurance contributions (NICs) implemented in April 2025. Firms were allowed to select more than one option. 66% of firms reported lowering profit margins, 34% raising prices, 46% lowering employment and 20% paying lower wages than they otherwise would have done. Fewer firms reported having increased prices, lowered employment or lowered wages in response to increased employer NICs than had been expected in the three months to January, before the changes were implemented. However, this question has only been asked to a third of firms in the panel so far.
Published on
04 September 2025
The DMP was set up in August 2016 and is run by the Bank of England in collaboration with King’s College London and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bunn et al (2024) for more details.
The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.